The US has laid out the final diplomatic cards on the table. They are asking for the complete disarmament of their nuclear program and a guarantee that they will stop threatening the Strait of Hormuz.
In return, the US will offer 0 reparations.
There’s no chance they’ll write a check for the damages of this war. But they can gradually unfreeze the regime’s seized cash in foreign banks.
Now it’s clear that Mojtaba Khamenei is either dead or incapacitated.
When the foreign minister declared that the Strait of Hormuz would be opened, the IRGC tweeted that he was an idiot and that it hadn’t been opened.
The commanders of the IRGC are really in charge of the Islamic Regime.
Will they accept a deal where they get to live, but clearly castrated?
If we look at it rationally, they should. The numbers are against them. We have seen images and videos of women and children patrolling the streets of Tehran. We know that militias from Iraq and Syria are in Iran. This is a clear sign that they are understaffed.
Now the indicators tell us that their downfall is accelerating:
#1 Oil Storage
By blockading the blockade, the US has made it very difficult for them to export oil.
For years, the IR has been evading sanctions by secretly exporting oil via its “Shadow Fleet”.
Currently, the smuggling networks overseen by heads of IRGC like the Shamkhani family are trying to overcome the US Navy, and we can safely say that in some cases, they have been able to do it, but it’s not enough.
What’s more problematic for them is the “Economic Fury” launched one day after the blockade.
The US will sanction every country that buys Iranian oil or sells them any weapons.
Once Iran hits maximum storage capacity, it needs to physically shut down the wells. This could permanently cause $9-$13 billion in annual revenue losses.
#2 The Economy of Desperation
Iran has about $100 billion locked in overseas bank accounts. And as of early 2025, it was estimated they had about $33.8 billion in foreign currency inside Iran.
Since their money is worthless and they cannot sell oil [at least normally], it will be very difficult to pay the troops, especially the militias.
If Tehran goes bankrupt, those forces will immediately go back to their countries.
The remaining armed troops will hoard food, fuel, medicine, and other assets, which will cause widespread hunger among the civilian population, leading to a violent uprising. The IRGC would have to fight block by block against its own population.
In this case, the odds increase that Artesh would intervene.
From the beginning of the war, they have been spared by the US and Israel, and the IRGC has not treated them well, leaving them with less ammunition and refusing to help the injured Artesh soldiers. Once the IRGC weakens, Artesh might attack it to seize control of the collapsing state.
#3 The Gaddafi Precedent
IRGC is not going to take a deal because it would be catastrophic for them.
Muammar Gaddafi received the same deal from the west. He was asked to give up working on having nukes for integration in the global economy. What happened is that 8 years later, he was torn into pieces in the middle of the street.
Another problem is the ideological sunk cost.
For 50 years, you told your supporters that you are superior, that you are going to wipe out the little Satan and destroy the big Satan, and now if you accept a deal, you are essentially sitting on your knees in front of them.
I believe that Washington didn’t really expect a deal. They are just trying to exhaust the diplomatic route. They are telling the world, “Look we tried to make a deal with them, but they are crazy.”
So what is left?
IRGC could try to cause as much damage towards the GCC countries as an attempt to increase pressure so that the US withdraws but that didn’t work a month ago and is way less likely to work now.
They will merge with the civilians to force the US and Israel to attack and increase the casualties, which would prompt the international opinion to force the US to withdraw. But from what we have seen in Lebanon and Gaza, this won’t work either.
As we said, the wild card is Artesh.
Once they are convinced that IRGC is at the weakest point, then it will likely prompt them to attack.
I don’t think the US will attack the Kharg Island and water plants as that would cause a massive humanitarian crisis. Instead they will attack their finance and communication networks.
All these indicators point to the conclusion that IRGC has already lost the war. There’s no way that the US will back off. It has proven that it can handle international and domestic pressure.
In addition, I have this theory that some of the elite members of the IRGC will abandon the war. They will make a secret deal with the US and run to Moscow with their millions of dollars. However, you still have the fanatics who will fight till the end.
But what makes the situation really crazy is the fact that IRGC members have entombed themselves at the ispahan underground complex with 440 kg of highly enriched uranium.
Now, the US could pick the delicate points of the tunnel, throw a massive bomb, and cause the tunnel to collapse.
Problem solved, right?
Nope.
That way you would risk causing a massive ecological disaster because the kinetic blast would violently rupture the highly pressurized canisters of Uranium Hexafluoride gas stored inside. Once that gas is exposed to the atmosphere, it triggers a massive chemical reaction – unleashing a lethal, heavier-than-air cloud of hydrofluoric acid and radioactive dust directly over central Iran.Â
There’s also the risk of the fanatics inside the complex deciding to put explosives in the pillars of the structure and cause the collapse.
This sounds insane and it is. But military intelligence cannot project rational, survival-oriented logic onto a radicalized faction. US strategic planners have to prepare for the reality that a collapsing regime might execute a scorched-earth doctrine.
It is a low-probability event, but the danger is absolute. It means that even as the IRGC falls and loses control of Iran, they are holding one final, radioactive card to keep the entire region hostage.
