Here we’ll go beyond ideology to examine the War in Iran from a colder perspective. Think of it like Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger analyzing a business before investing their money.
In this case where would you bet? In the US or Iran?
A quick clarification, we don’t have US vs Iran. It’s not a traditional country-to-country war. The Islamic regime is a massive player, sure, but they aren’t the only ones on the board.
We’ll see later who the other players are and how they are likely to counteract the asymmetric warfare.
But right now, let’s look at their biggest advantage. It isn’t their drones, their missiles, or their hackers, even though those are definitely impressive.
Their ultimate weapon is actually the concept of martyrdom
To understand it, we’ll briefly rewind the Iraq-Iran war.
Back in 1980, right after the Iranian revolution, Saddam Hussein smelled blood in the water. He rolled in with a bigger, more prepared army, betting on a quick, easy win—but he was dead wrong.
Ayatollah Khomeini countered by turning the war into a spiritual crusade.
You see, they’re Shia Muslims. They believe that dying for a righteous cause gives you direct entry to paradise. It’s the same concept as Valhalla.
So they launched a massive propaganda campaign that recruited thousands of young men who had little to no military training, but also and this is sadly true, they recruited a lot of kids as young as 9 years old, up to the age of 16.
Since these soldiers were seeking a place in paradise, the commanders could use them in incredibly dangerous operations.
Sometimes, they literally marched them straight through Iraqi minefields just to clear a safe path for their more valuable tanks and regular troops.
Essentially, they were used as biological drones.
Why am I saying this?
Because the entire IRGC is based on this psychological framework. They can afford to sacrifice their soldiers and even their leadership.
Just look at the spin they put on Khamenei’s death; they pushed the narrative that he wasn’t caught off guard at all , but rather that he actively chose martyrdom by Israeli bombs
The problem is that the demographic is dramatically different from the 80s. You don’t have that massive, rural, uneducated youth that you can recruit.
I think that the incentive of IRGC and Basij members is not to become martyrs anymore but to survive. If the government changes, they will lose all of their money, their power, and likely their lives.
The martyrdom narrative is to keep the supporters of the regime radicalized and to recruit new members that could serve as cannon fodder
Now that we have covered their biggest strength, let’s look at their biggest flaw.
The Lack of Meritocracy.
No matter how you view it, the current government in Iran is a dictatorship. And the biggest threat to a regime is not extreme poverty, demonstrations, or an outside power, but your own military. They’re the only ones with the necessary power to overthrow you.
So you cannot afford a military that is not fiercely loyal to you.
Sure, you can try to keep them in line using money and coercion, but history shows those methods eventually stop working, and that’s when a coup happens
But what if you pick people who are ideologically loyal to your regime? In this case, they will not betray. In fact, they’ll eagerly snitch on any fellow soldiers or police officers who show even a hint of dissatisfaction with the government.
The problem is that they’re not the best possible soldiers or officers.
They usually lack the actual tactical skill sets that a normal, merit-based recruit would bring to the table.
However, if you order them to attack peaceful protesters in the street, they will do it without a second thought. Honestly, I believe many of them would even attack their own father if they deemed them a threat to the regime.
So technically speaking, these are not the best people for the job. A regime has to sacrifice capability for unquestionable obedience.
And that’s why their military crumbles against an opponent who can fire back.
You can talk all you want about asymmetric warfare and the glory of martyrdom. But bro… how do you lose 40 commanders, including the Supreme Leader, in the very first hour of the war?
Am I crazy to see this as a major sign that these people don’t know what they’re doing?
That loss has mobilized the rest of the Iranian population. It has given them proof that the regime is at its lowest point.
The IRGC is, as we said, highly incentivized to fight till the end, while the civilian supporters of the regime are also motivated to fight. If not for ideology, for survival.
Looking ahead, I think we are going to see the few actual strategic minds left in the IRGC splinter off into their own rogue factions. But make no mistake, they will just be factions. They will never rule Iran again. At worst, they will stir up chaos within the country and try to launch kamikaze-style attacks in the West.
Let’s look at the next move.
Sending US ground troops into Iran is completely off the table. It’s a highly controversial move, even for Trump, and frankly, they don’t have the necessary experience to win. So they have already made a deal with the Kurdish Coalition.
These people are well-trained and capable of waging the exact type of guerrilla war needed to match the IRGC toe-to-toe on their own turf.
But there’s an obvious elephant in the room. Historically, the US has a terrible habit of using local proxy groups to topple hostile regimes, only to completely abandon them the second they are not needed anymore.
The Kurds are not naive. They know the drill. So why agree to bleed for the US?
Two reasons.
First, survival and revenge.
The IRGC has systematically persecuted the Kurdish people for decades.
But right now, the regime is bleeding. With the US methodically flattening their military bases and Israel hunting down the remaining leadership, the Kurds have a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to finish the job and completely destroy their oppressors.
And second, they would want more control over the territory where they live. It’s highly unlikely that they will get autonomy because set a dangerous precedent but they’ll definitely get more control and resources.
Now, let’s bring in the next major player on the board: Artesh.
This is Iran’s other army. Their job is to protect the physical borders.
Unlike the true believers we talked about earlier, the Artesh is generally viewed as respected and highly competent. But there is a catch: the regime deliberately keeps them under-equipped compared to the IRGC. They are handed just enough resources to do their daily job, but never enough firepower to pose a credible threat to the ruling regime itself.
So what happens now?
It looks like the Kurdish coalition is going to attack the guard on the ground, and the Artesh is just going to sit back and watch.
Why? Because we’re looking at a controlled collapse.
The US and Israel took out their air defenses and navy to control the map, but they are intentionally leaving the regular ground bases alone.
That is a very clear, deliberate signal.
You have to remember that Iran is composed of several major ethnic groups—including the Azeris, the Kurds, the Lurs, the Arabs, and the Baloch.
If a total power vacuum opens up, these groups might see it as their golden opportunity to break away and fight for outright independence. If the entire military structure just evaporates overnight, there is absolutely nothing stopping these factions from carving up the map, completely shattering Iran into multiple, chaotic warzones.
By leaving the Artesh infantry intact, the US is betting they’ll stay out of the crossfire. Then, once the regime gets wiped out, the Artesh will be the largest organized force left standing
Finally, we arrive at the most important player in all of this: Israel.
Obviously, they are secretly controlling the US to completely dominate the Middle East.
I’m just kidding.
Come on, man. Do you really think a country that small is actively controlling the biggest empire in human history? Sure, they have a strong lobby group in Washington, but make no mistake—the US operates on its own grand strategic plan.
So, you might be asking, what exactly is that plan?
I’m glad you asked.
They want to choke China’s shadow economy.
For years, Iran and Venezuela have used a fleet of ghost ships to dodge sanctions and sell dirt-cheap oil to China. This gives Chinese corporations a massive, cheap energy advantage.
But it goes deeper. Mexican cartels are buying the raw chemicals to make fentanyl directly from China. And who helps wash all that dirty cartel cash? Hezbollah and Chinese underground banking networks.
At the exact same time, Iran, Russia, and China are actively building an alternative financial system to bypass the US dollar. If they succeed, the US loses its superpower status. Crushing this shadow economy is the only way to force everyone back into the dollar-dominated system.
You might say that China will buy cheap oil from Russia. Well, it already does and its pipelines are already at max capacity.
Think about it: Once the Iranian supply disappears, the price war ends. Russia won’t need to offer deep discounts anymore. So China’s “cheap energy” miracle would evaporate overnight, and they’d become 100% dependent on a single, sanctioned partner.
To put it simply, the Trump administration this year has made some bold and expensive moves but if they pull it off, and it looks like they will—the upside is insane.
The only question is: What is China going to do?
